Key quote: "One thing is clear and welcome. On his livestream today, Swain noted these fires were “an exceptionally predictable event,” and that, almost assured, has kept down the death count".
The people, technology, and science behind the warnings of events like this are often not given their due because the number of lives that weren't lost is not calculable. It's still early, but at least from what I've seen on TV so far, virtually everyone interviewed was aware of the danger in advance and was generally prepared.
Andy, from the ashy knolls of Santa Monica, thanks for this. It's a great point, about changing the mindset of fighting fires to living with them as quite literally forces of nature. Thanks for your helpful post.
This was such an important point: “Nobody talks about trying to stop earthquakes. Wildfires require the same kind of approach.” I want this to be more widely understood, especially when land managers advocate for logging in the backcountry, far from human habitation, in order to 'prevent' wildfires. Home hardening is a far better solution, and as Cohen and others note, far more cost effective.
Thanks for this. News organizations need to report on wildfire and its causes year-round, not just when fires are occurring. When it's happening, reporters are expected to track numbers around the clock (lives, acres, containment, etc), rather than writing stories, like yours here, that focus on causes and solutions. A study published in Fire Ecology last year showed that, essentially, homes have so much combustible material that they are what light other homes on fire. Once these fires are in neighborhoods, it's game over (sorry, need to find the link to the study). Aside from defensible space, we need to look at building materials. Companies are popping up that provide roof sprinklers. California's new defensible space rules may soon require metal fences. Homeowners should also consider metal siding.
I would love to see that paper when you find it. Thanks very much. Several of the links in my post to previous dispatches .2 lots of information on fire resistant construction – including fiber, board siding as well. And critically trying to avoid gaps that can let embers get into a house. Thanks again.
And yes, embers are a driving factor. I escaped an ember storm in Santa Rosa. I also frantically wrapped our deck in the deck furniture when it was threatened by wildfire, so the embers couldn't get under it.
Homes built prior to 1997 fared poorly, with only 11.5% surviving, compared with 38.5% survival for homes built in 1997 and after. The difference in survival percentage for homes built immediately before and after the adoption of Chapter 7A in the California Building Code (37% and 44%, respectively) was not statistically significant. Distance to nearest destroyed structure, number of structures destroyed within 100 m, and pre-fire overstory canopy cover within 100 m of the home were the strongest predictors of survival, but significant interactions with the construction time period suggested that factors contributing to survival differed for homes of different ages. Homes >18 m from a destroyed structure and in areas with pre-fire overstory canopy cover within 30–100 m of the home of <53% survived at a substantially higher rate than homes in closer proximity to a destroyed structure or in areas with higher pre-fire overstory canopy cover. Most fire damage to surviving homes appeared to result from radiant heat from nearby burning structures or flame impingement from the ignition of near-home combustible materials.
Mike Smith, a longtime severe-weather meteorolgist who's been on Sustain What, sent this note by email:
Thank you for writing your substack piece today.
I wish to make several points which are predicated on accurate news reports. You noted the similarities of the Palisades Fire to the Maui Fire and to the Superior/Boulder Fire. Please consider:
One of the most terrifying similarities is that L.A. County officials made exactly the same mistakes regarding traffic evacuations as were made in those two fires. There was no proactivity (again, assuming news reports are correct), no contraflow (used in hurricane evacuations), nothing. People abandoned their cars in droves and fled on foot. KTLA TV Tuesday afternoon had live images of a LAC bulldozer pushing cars to the side to make a lane for emergency equipment. In Maui, officials blocked every road out of the city except one. Panicked people desperately fled in all directions, including into the ocean, trying to escape the flames. Traffic issues were also reported in Colorado.
Fire hydrants ran dry as Pacific Palisades burned. L.A. city officials blame ‘tremendous demand’
The National Weather Service in Hawaii did an extraordinary job — four days in advance — forecasting the conditions that led to the Maui Wildfire. This past weekend, National Weather Service officials forecast extreme fire conditions in Southern California. On Maui, nothing was done with that critical forecast and the eight emergency managers assigned to the island boarded a plane and went to Honolulu for routine meetings. None were present on the island when the fires broke out. In Los Angeles, little to nothing was done with the forecast of “extremely critical” fire risk while the mayor was in Ghana to attend the swearing-in of that nation’s president.
Unlike many European nations, the United States lacks a systematic way to learning from past disasters and applying those lessons to prevent them from being made in the future. We have a hugely successful National Transportation Safety Board, a Chemical Safety Board, a U.S. Climate Assessment and others. These disastrous events, and the recurring errors, cry out for U.S National Disaster Review Board. Otherwise, these fatal and hugely expensive disasters are bound to continue and grow worse.
One thing in common with these communities I would expect is the VPD , when we dam and divert water for human consumption and cover areas in hard surface or lower the water tables for agriculture we are shutting off the ground water recharge and speeding up natural flows into the ocean. Has there been any studies in this case as to the levels of the pressure differential and its effects on rainfall patterns? Grey water offers us an immediate chance to make a difference on an individual level, Each of us produce 50+ liters of it every day if we incorporated a small natural water filtration bog into sumps or water retention systems for our hard surface storm water and allowed grey water to infiltrate through the same system when it is not raining this may offer some reprieve and improve ground water flows bring back natural springs and essentially tilt the system toward more regular rain creation. The expense? could be as simple as redesigning the S bend under the shower to funnel water into the garden ,Also there are many fire retardant plants for urban areas as this shows.
Key quote: "One thing is clear and welcome. On his livestream today, Swain noted these fires were “an exceptionally predictable event,” and that, almost assured, has kept down the death count".
The people, technology, and science behind the warnings of events like this are often not given their due because the number of lives that weren't lost is not calculable. It's still early, but at least from what I've seen on TV so far, virtually everyone interviewed was aware of the danger in advance and was generally prepared.
Yes, very different than the Maui fire and, to some extent the Marshall fire in Boulder County.
Andy, from the ashy knolls of Santa Monica, thanks for this. It's a great point, about changing the mindset of fighting fires to living with them as quite literally forces of nature. Thanks for your helpful post.
Please stay in touch as things unfold
This was such an important point: “Nobody talks about trying to stop earthquakes. Wildfires require the same kind of approach.” I want this to be more widely understood, especially when land managers advocate for logging in the backcountry, far from human habitation, in order to 'prevent' wildfires. Home hardening is a far better solution, and as Cohen and others note, far more cost effective.
Thanks for this. News organizations need to report on wildfire and its causes year-round, not just when fires are occurring. When it's happening, reporters are expected to track numbers around the clock (lives, acres, containment, etc), rather than writing stories, like yours here, that focus on causes and solutions. A study published in Fire Ecology last year showed that, essentially, homes have so much combustible material that they are what light other homes on fire. Once these fires are in neighborhoods, it's game over (sorry, need to find the link to the study). Aside from defensible space, we need to look at building materials. Companies are popping up that provide roof sprinklers. California's new defensible space rules may soon require metal fences. Homeowners should also consider metal siding.
I would love to see that paper when you find it. Thanks very much. Several of the links in my post to previous dispatches .2 lots of information on fire resistant construction – including fiber, board siding as well. And critically trying to avoid gaps that can let embers get into a house. Thanks again.
And yes, embers are a driving factor. I escaped an ember storm in Santa Rosa. I also frantically wrapped our deck in the deck furniture when it was threatened by wildfire, so the embers couldn't get under it.
Here is the study, an examination of homes in Paradise that survived the Camp Fire versus homes that didn't: https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/65039
>>>
Homes built prior to 1997 fared poorly, with only 11.5% surviving, compared with 38.5% survival for homes built in 1997 and after. The difference in survival percentage for homes built immediately before and after the adoption of Chapter 7A in the California Building Code (37% and 44%, respectively) was not statistically significant. Distance to nearest destroyed structure, number of structures destroyed within 100 m, and pre-fire overstory canopy cover within 100 m of the home were the strongest predictors of survival, but significant interactions with the construction time period suggested that factors contributing to survival differed for homes of different ages. Homes >18 m from a destroyed structure and in areas with pre-fire overstory canopy cover within 30–100 m of the home of <53% survived at a substantially higher rate than homes in closer proximity to a destroyed structure or in areas with higher pre-fire overstory canopy cover. Most fire damage to surviving homes appeared to result from radiant heat from nearby burning structures or flame impingement from the ignition of near-home combustible materials.
Mike Smith, a longtime severe-weather meteorolgist who's been on Sustain What, sent this note by email:
Thank you for writing your substack piece today.
I wish to make several points which are predicated on accurate news reports. You noted the similarities of the Palisades Fire to the Maui Fire and to the Superior/Boulder Fire. Please consider:
One of the most terrifying similarities is that L.A. County officials made exactly the same mistakes regarding traffic evacuations as were made in those two fires. There was no proactivity (again, assuming news reports are correct), no contraflow (used in hurricane evacuations), nothing. People abandoned their cars in droves and fled on foot. KTLA TV Tuesday afternoon had live images of a LAC bulldozer pushing cars to the side to make a lane for emergency equipment. In Maui, officials blocked every road out of the city except one. Panicked people desperately fled in all directions, including into the ocean, trying to escape the flames. Traffic issues were also reported in Colorado.
In the case of Maui, up mountain officials decided not to release upstream water to lower reservoirs, so there was little water for firefighting. Headline from this morning ( https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/after-fire-hydrants-ran-dry-in-palisades-city-officials-blame-tremendous-demand/ar-AA1xa5zD ):
Fire hydrants ran dry as Pacific Palisades burned. L.A. city officials blame ‘tremendous demand’
The National Weather Service in Hawaii did an extraordinary job — four days in advance — forecasting the conditions that led to the Maui Wildfire. This past weekend, National Weather Service officials forecast extreme fire conditions in Southern California. On Maui, nothing was done with that critical forecast and the eight emergency managers assigned to the island boarded a plane and went to Honolulu for routine meetings. None were present on the island when the fires broke out. In Los Angeles, little to nothing was done with the forecast of “extremely critical” fire risk while the mayor was in Ghana to attend the swearing-in of that nation’s president.
Unlike many European nations, the United States lacks a systematic way to learning from past disasters and applying those lessons to prevent them from being made in the future. We have a hugely successful National Transportation Safety Board, a Chemical Safety Board, a U.S. Climate Assessment and others. These disastrous events, and the recurring errors, cry out for U.S National Disaster Review Board. Otherwise, these fatal and hugely expensive disasters are bound to continue and grow worse.
Mike Smith
Here's our conversation on the need for a National Disaster Safety (or Review) Board: https://revkin.substack.com/i/152402221/better-weather-warnings-and-a-disaster-review-board
One thing in common with these communities I would expect is the VPD , when we dam and divert water for human consumption and cover areas in hard surface or lower the water tables for agriculture we are shutting off the ground water recharge and speeding up natural flows into the ocean. Has there been any studies in this case as to the levels of the pressure differential and its effects on rainfall patterns? Grey water offers us an immediate chance to make a difference on an individual level, Each of us produce 50+ liters of it every day if we incorporated a small natural water filtration bog into sumps or water retention systems for our hard surface storm water and allowed grey water to infiltrate through the same system when it is not raining this may offer some reprieve and improve ground water flows bring back natural springs and essentially tilt the system toward more regular rain creation. The expense? could be as simple as redesigning the S bend under the shower to funnel water into the garden ,Also there are many fire retardant plants for urban areas as this shows.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/09/03/how-a-devastating-forest-fire-revealed-a-tree-as-close-to-fireproof-as-a-tree-can-get/