Spot on Andy. Hot narratives capture attention. They subvert science, a cyclical process of observation, questioning, recording, and communicating. They demand that we take their gospel, I mean findings, on faith in their superior understandings.
AMOC is the Atlantic gyre of the Gulf Stream going North, the Azores Current flowing south and the Equatorial Current flowing west. Places that we know. Yet, they hide behind opaque language reporting the seasonal variation of the Gulf Stream’s flow as something to be concerned with because big numbers are involved despite the variations in flow being less than 1%.
Freshwater forcing is a concept foisted on us by those who have not observed fresh river water flowing out over the briny deep without impacting the movement of the water below. Dinghy sailors look for a slippery sea where the wind pushes the fresher puddle on top of the ocean in a different direction, giving them an advantage in the race.
2012, the bridge over Watson Creek in Greenland was damaged by excessive meltwater. A one-time occurrence, most of the meltwater refreezes on top of Greenland’s ice sheet. It is measured puddled about 18 inches deep on top of the ice, not going anywhere. If more meltwater comes off the ice sheet, plants take it up and transpire water over the 60 miles of land between ice and sea. The ocean surface water tasted like the Atlantic Ocean at 36 parts per thousand, not the taste of an estuary.
In 2011, Ship traffic out of Rhode Island noted that the Gulf Stream was dissipating more energy than ever by meandering up onto the continental shelf closer to Newport.
In 2007, people in Svalbard experienced the Gulf Stream surfacing, warming their climate and commencing the melting of glaciers on the land.
Finally, NASA published an animation of the Arctic Sea Ice Melt in 2023, showing the melt does not start along the shore as it does when spring comes to lakes. The melt begins along the Greenland Sea, where warm Atlantic water is constantly coursing into the Arctic Sea, bearing right due to the Earth’s rotation (Coriolis Effect). Most everyone knows you cannot warm coffee with a hair dryer; it must be placed on a hot plate. And the Arctic sea ice is being melted by warm water below. (This is why the heat in the atmosphere over the Arctic was found to be lacking in melting all the sea ice. Instead of following where the data points to the thermal mass, the Albedo effect is promoted even when the sun is low on the horizon by those who do not know that sunglasses are necessary for those at sea in the Arctic for the glare off the water. They likely believe a pint glass of black coffee set on a sunny table next to a glass of milk will become warmer than the milk.)
Meanwhile, we have crossed a climate tipping point by removing vegetation and soils and replacing them with hard surfaces, where stormwater overflow is a problem despite annual rainfalls not increasing.
Putting a potted plant on one’s doorstep will hold and transpire water while drawing down more carbon. We can slow the changing climate at home and leave AMOC concerns to the experts.
MrJon Baker, Senior Climate scientist at the Met again is making his best guess" It is unlikely there will be a catastrophic failure of the AMOC occuring before 2100 BUT the risks are real. Everytime a climate scientist has to leave this door open means that there statementare only a guess. There are many unforeseen or yet to be discovered interferencing conditions directly affecting the AMOC and signs of it weakening does not bode well for Mr Bakers hopes.
It always shocks me that changing the time of year that major influxes of fresh water make their way into the northern oceans has never been thoroughly researched by the scientific community . For centuries the largest rivers in the Northern hemisphere, particularly all those now former rivers, used to be frozen in all winter long. These x rivers now reservoirs in the subarctic, are forced to flow all winter from hydroelectric stations that pull the warm waters from 60-70 feet down below the top of frozen reservoirs, here the water temperature is around 40F.
This is the exact opposite of what used to be for thousands of years. Again these former rivers flow only below the hydro reservoir dams and only in the dead of winter. The ongoing cumulative effect year after year for 6 decades changed the entire temperature profile along the archipelago, from Siberia to Labrador, as well as themally polluting-gradually heating waters entering the Continental Shelves ALONG THE ARCTIC COAS, and knocking out of sinc Thermohaline currents that functioned with a natural river flow and not a human regulated flow.
For a deep dive into this. Check out an upcoming webinar: You can register at this link
Spot on Andy. Hot narratives capture attention. They subvert science, a cyclical process of observation, questioning, recording, and communicating. They demand that we take their gospel, I mean findings, on faith in their superior understandings.
AMOC is the Atlantic gyre of the Gulf Stream going North, the Azores Current flowing south and the Equatorial Current flowing west. Places that we know. Yet, they hide behind opaque language reporting the seasonal variation of the Gulf Stream’s flow as something to be concerned with because big numbers are involved despite the variations in flow being less than 1%.
Freshwater forcing is a concept foisted on us by those who have not observed fresh river water flowing out over the briny deep without impacting the movement of the water below. Dinghy sailors look for a slippery sea where the wind pushes the fresher puddle on top of the ocean in a different direction, giving them an advantage in the race.
2012, the bridge over Watson Creek in Greenland was damaged by excessive meltwater. A one-time occurrence, most of the meltwater refreezes on top of Greenland’s ice sheet. It is measured puddled about 18 inches deep on top of the ice, not going anywhere. If more meltwater comes off the ice sheet, plants take it up and transpire water over the 60 miles of land between ice and sea. The ocean surface water tasted like the Atlantic Ocean at 36 parts per thousand, not the taste of an estuary.
In 2011, Ship traffic out of Rhode Island noted that the Gulf Stream was dissipating more energy than ever by meandering up onto the continental shelf closer to Newport.
In 2007, people in Svalbard experienced the Gulf Stream surfacing, warming their climate and commencing the melting of glaciers on the land.
Finally, NASA published an animation of the Arctic Sea Ice Melt in 2023, showing the melt does not start along the shore as it does when spring comes to lakes. The melt begins along the Greenland Sea, where warm Atlantic water is constantly coursing into the Arctic Sea, bearing right due to the Earth’s rotation (Coriolis Effect). Most everyone knows you cannot warm coffee with a hair dryer; it must be placed on a hot plate. And the Arctic sea ice is being melted by warm water below. (This is why the heat in the atmosphere over the Arctic was found to be lacking in melting all the sea ice. Instead of following where the data points to the thermal mass, the Albedo effect is promoted even when the sun is low on the horizon by those who do not know that sunglasses are necessary for those at sea in the Arctic for the glare off the water. They likely believe a pint glass of black coffee set on a sunny table next to a glass of milk will become warmer than the milk.)
Meanwhile, we have crossed a climate tipping point by removing vegetation and soils and replacing them with hard surfaces, where stormwater overflow is a problem despite annual rainfalls not increasing.
Putting a potted plant on one’s doorstep will hold and transpire water while drawing down more carbon. We can slow the changing climate at home and leave AMOC concerns to the experts.
Act locally to effect globally.
That's good to hear. The use of the AMOC acronym and other technical terms has not been helpful to helping laypeople understand climate change anyway.
One issue I've seen is that physical scientists often are naive about messaging and what activates - or paralyzes - the average person.
MrJon Baker, Senior Climate scientist at the Met again is making his best guess" It is unlikely there will be a catastrophic failure of the AMOC occuring before 2100 BUT the risks are real. Everytime a climate scientist has to leave this door open means that there statementare only a guess. There are many unforeseen or yet to be discovered interferencing conditions directly affecting the AMOC and signs of it weakening does not bode well for Mr Bakers hopes.
It always shocks me that changing the time of year that major influxes of fresh water make their way into the northern oceans has never been thoroughly researched by the scientific community . For centuries the largest rivers in the Northern hemisphere, particularly all those now former rivers, used to be frozen in all winter long. These x rivers now reservoirs in the subarctic, are forced to flow all winter from hydroelectric stations that pull the warm waters from 60-70 feet down below the top of frozen reservoirs, here the water temperature is around 40F.
This is the exact opposite of what used to be for thousands of years. Again these former rivers flow only below the hydro reservoir dams and only in the dead of winter. The ongoing cumulative effect year after year for 6 decades changed the entire temperature profile along the archipelago, from Siberia to Labrador, as well as themally polluting-gradually heating waters entering the Continental Shelves ALONG THE ARCTIC COAS, and knocking out of sinc Thermohaline currents that functioned with a natural river flow and not a human regulated flow.
For a deep dive into this. Check out an upcoming webinar: You can register at this link
https://act.sierraclub.org/events/details?formcampaignid=701Po00000hHWp7IAG&mapLinkHref=