I hope you’ll watch and share this conversation on the still-challenging gulf between supercomputer simulations of evolving hurricanes and society’s needs. Choose YouTube, Facebook, LinkedIn or X/Twitter.

The world's best supercomputer simulations forecasting hurricane paths have produced very different paths for Hurricane Lee as it approaches northeastern North America (and, for what it’s worth, my coastal home). Complex atmospheric dynamics and a slowing storm will do that. This storm situation leaves a narrowing time window for clearly informing communities that may need to prepare or evacuate.

UPDATED > Here’s the model mix as of September 13 via Tomer Burg’s wonderful University of Oklahoma tool:

You can generate a fresh one by clicking here.

I wrote about this kind of forecasting challenge way back in 2004 in The New York Times as Category 5 Hurricane Ivan approached the Gulf Coast. There’s vastly more data and computer power now, but the fundamental challenges remain.

And while Maine has had hurricane landfalls before, they are much less common than in Florida or the Carolinas, meaning there’s less practice in getting out of harm’s way.

So join me with Maine-focused meteorologist Jason Nappi of News Center Maine (he’s been posting invaluable updates) and hurricane geographer Cary Mock of the University of South Carolina, who’s helpfully sifted back in hurricane history and noted, for instance, the devastating impacts of the “Saxby Gale” of October 1869. Make sure to read about that storm and other potent extratropical systems if you see anyone proclaiming whatever happens this weekend is unprecedented.

So stay safe, whatever hazards your community faces, and please subscribe to help support what I do.