From Boulder County, Colorado, to Lahaina, Hawaii, to West Kelowna, B.C. a tragically familiar tale of unheeded wildfire warnings. Here's a conversation with top experts trying to change this pattern.
Yeah. I did an interview with scientist whose house was burned - frustrated about community leaving adjacent grasslands unmowed for sake of butterflies. Tradeoffs are fine but danger makes things different. Thanks for posting! Join the show at 1 ET and post a comment.
Lots of factors contributed to home ignitions, with the initial homes igniting in large part due to dry, cedar plank privacy fences on private (not public) property that led directly from untreated grass fuels to homes. These home ignitions can be prevented by a combination of public and private actions.
The survival of the 81-year-old "Miracle House" is striking. Owners cut back undergrowth on the property, had a five-foot stone and gravel buffer around the house, and a metal roof. Virtually untouched!
There is a sad echo of CA as well. Hawaiian Electric was forced to spend money on renewable generation rather than upgrading infrastructure. Result: Wind and debris downed lines that sparked (sorry about the bad pun) the fires. Same thing happened in CA.
In effect, it does. Money is part of it, but it's also the human capital investment. Having to train people not only on renewables but also on the tricky load balancing act needed to achieve required reliability. As in CA, the PUC is not allowing HECO to raise rates enough to do everything. Thus, HECO is making choices influenced by the institutional reality that their regulator is pushing them toward renewables.
Don't misunderstand - I'm not against renewables per se. I'm against politicians pushing renewables while not recognizing that these entail capital and operational expenditures over and above those included in "normal" rate scales. It's no accident that much of the EU is slouching toward energy poverty - renewables are still expensive. Load balancing when renewables are greater than ~20% of the generated mix is more of a craft than a technology. Bottom line - there's no free lunch. If we want zero carbon, we need to plan how to get there. Otherwise, Lahaina, the California wildfires and the rolling blackouts and brownouts - unintended consequences of "feel good" environmentalism – will continue.
Invaluable insights, John. That point about human capital, particularly - and especially with the shortage of trained folks in key arenas. I deeply appreciate comments like this. Why I call myself a "selfish blogger" off and on, as I did in this 2021 interview on my career path: Climate Journalist Andrew Revkin on Evolving Beyond Storytelling https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2021/09/07/climate-journalist-andrew-revkin-on-evolving-beyond-storytelling/
Parts of Marshall Fire that weren't covered much in the press that I saw;
Evacuation successful due to lots of cars (against narrative "no one should have private vehicles"
Houses burned because they were too close together (densification is great!)
Lots of tall dry grasses (cows are bad! Leaving grass alone is great).
And bad luck..
too many ignitions at the same time,
it snowed the next day.
Yeah. I did an interview with scientist whose house was burned - frustrated about community leaving adjacent grasslands unmowed for sake of butterflies. Tradeoffs are fine but danger makes things different. Thanks for posting! Join the show at 1 ET and post a comment.
I also saw on the news TV a video where a rancher showed how the fire came right up to a grazed area and stopped. Can't make the show but here are a few relevant posts. https://forestpolicypub.com/2022/10/19/the-marshall-fire-to-what-extent-is-the-climate-lens-true-or-helpful/
https://forestpolicypub.com/2022/01/03/the-marshall-fire-wind-grasslands-suburbs-and-towns/
Mowing of grass on private property had similar effects on fire behavior and prevented home ignitions.
Lots of factors contributed to home ignitions, with the initial homes igniting in large part due to dry, cedar plank privacy fences on private (not public) property that led directly from untreated grass fuels to homes. These home ignitions can be prevented by a combination of public and private actions.
The survival of the 81-year-old "Miracle House" is striking. Owners cut back undergrowth on the property, had a five-foot stone and gravel buffer around the house, and a metal roof. Virtually untouched!
There is a sad echo of CA as well. Hawaiian Electric was forced to spend money on renewable generation rather than upgrading infrastructure. Result: Wind and debris downed lines that sparked (sorry about the bad pun) the fires. Same thing happened in CA.
Not sure that has to be an either/or expenditure for Hawai’i (maintenance and clean new sources) given longstanding dependence on costly OIL for electrical generation.https://www.hawaiianelectric.com/about-us/power-facts and https://www.civilbeat.org/2022/05/maui-may-build-a-new-oil-fired-power-plant/
In effect, it does. Money is part of it, but it's also the human capital investment. Having to train people not only on renewables but also on the tricky load balancing act needed to achieve required reliability. As in CA, the PUC is not allowing HECO to raise rates enough to do everything. Thus, HECO is making choices influenced by the institutional reality that their regulator is pushing them toward renewables.
Don't misunderstand - I'm not against renewables per se. I'm against politicians pushing renewables while not recognizing that these entail capital and operational expenditures over and above those included in "normal" rate scales. It's no accident that much of the EU is slouching toward energy poverty - renewables are still expensive. Load balancing when renewables are greater than ~20% of the generated mix is more of a craft than a technology. Bottom line - there's no free lunch. If we want zero carbon, we need to plan how to get there. Otherwise, Lahaina, the California wildfires and the rolling blackouts and brownouts - unintended consequences of "feel good" environmentalism – will continue.
Invaluable insights, John. That point about human capital, particularly - and especially with the shortage of trained folks in key arenas. I deeply appreciate comments like this. Why I call myself a "selfish blogger" off and on, as I did in this 2021 interview on my career path: Climate Journalist Andrew Revkin on Evolving Beyond Storytelling https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2021/09/07/climate-journalist-andrew-revkin-on-evolving-beyond-storytelling/