Why Recent Chart-Busting Heat Spikes are Such an Unnerving Surprise to Climate Scientists
Updated - Gavin Schmidt, who took the lead at NASA’s climate-charting Goddard Institute for Space Studies a decade ago following the retirement of climate pioneer James E. Hansen, has long been a careful data cruncher and communicator. That’s why his Nature commentary from March 19th is so important:
In the article, Schmidt ticks down the possible mechanisms that could explain the surreal mix of records set for North Atlantic Ocean and atmospheric temperatures, Antarctic sea ice retreats and more, then notes they all come up dramatically short. He offers this disquieting kicker:
In general, the 2023 temperature anomaly has come out of the blue, revealing an unprecedented knowledge gap perhaps for the first time since about 40 years ago, when satellite data began offering modellers an unparalleled, real-time view of Earth’s climate system. If the anomaly does not stabilize by August — a reasonable expectation based on previous El Niño events — then the world will be in uncharted territory. It could imply that a warming planet is already fundamentally altering how the climate system operates, much sooner than scientists had anticipated. It could also mean that statistical inferences based on past events are less reliable than we thought, adding more uncertainty to seasonal predictions of droughts and rainfall patterns.
Much of the world’s climate is driven by intricate, long-distance links — known as teleconnections — fuelled by sea and atmospheric currents. If their behaviour is in flux or markedly diverging from previous observations, we need to know about such changes in real time. We need answers for why 2023 turned out to be the warmest year in possibly the past 100,000 years. And we need them quickly.
I asked if he could spare a few minutes to talk through these anomalies, what may be limiting understanding and how likely it is that we’re seeing some new manifestation of human-driven global warming.
You can watch here on YouTube or on @revkin at showtime on X/Twitter, on LinkedIn or Facebook - even Twitch!
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We were joined in the second half of the show by Adam Sobel, a professor of atmospheric sciences at Columbia’s Climate School who’s shifted in recent years from basic climate change science to a focus on improving adaptation policy through better science and interdisciplinary communication. He just wrote a commentary for Nature as well titled Are we all doomed? How to cope with the daunting uncertainties of climate change.
For reference, below you can also find some of the key indicators in the new World Meteorological Organization State of the Climate report.
Here’s the link to the news release and report.
NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory also released a new assessment of sea-level rise today - a variable I’m keenly tracking given our coastal setting and eroding shoreline here in Downeast Maine. This animation shows, once again, the anomalous nature of recent months.
Very Frustrating for climatologists to see such an anomaly particularly based on all the existing climate models that seem to have no indication of this. We can only hope that this is a one time anomaly. However we must try to turn over every single stone in an effort to come up with reasonable suspects that may be responsible, maybe we have overlooked, .in our effort to discover why the N. Hemisphere's Arctic regions are heating at much greater rates than the remainder of this planet.
I do believe that scientists and in particular the satellite and sensor work that NASA has been up to is shedding some important light on thie subject of warming . Often overlooked is the relationship of fresh water, condensation, evaporation, and water vapor and the transitional processes in conversion from gas to liquid and solid to gas to liquid. This often requires energy and heat to accomplish
So historically GHG emissions have been measured based on methane and C02 emissions but recent NASA research suggests that water vapor causes 90% of the greenhouse effect on Earth; https://airs.jpl.nasa.gov/news/4/warming-at-the-top-of-the-planet/
According to the National Wildfire Coordinating Group/Fire Weather Publication, “Clouds and Precipitation" https://www.nwcg.gov/publications/pms425-1/clouds-and-precipitation
"“Over an area the size of Oregon, 1 inch of rain is equivalent to nearly 8 billion tons of water. All of this water comes from condensation of vapor in the atmosphere. For each ton of water that condenses, almost 2 million B.T.U.’s of latent heat is released to the atmosphere. It becomes obvious that tremendous quantities of water and energy are involved in the formation of clouds and precipitation."
So when did the atmosphere on our planet begin to get saturated by water vapor? Were there human activities that may have gone unaccounted for that may have pushed water vapor levels high?
Was there any proliferation of human activities in extremely sensitive regions on this planet that may have reversed the natural course of nature there? As scientists we understand that polar and the Equatorial regions are extremely sensitive to human impacts. What could have happened in polar, subpolar reaches to cause a chain of events that would increase in intensity over decades and eventually culminate in Polar Amplification feedbacks. Below is not the whole story but a significant piece that my organization believes has been over-looked.
The largest amount of fresh water on planet Earth is in the subarctic in the Northern
Hemisphere. And the smallest of the planetary oceans the Arctic Ocean resides there
The subarctic is Ground Zero for initial heat amplification caused by excesses of water vapor emissions. And excesses of warmed fresh water thermally and slowly polluting the Arctic ocean and regions. By the late 1960s, water vapor, became a major contributor to Arctic Amplification and a major force in producing climate feedbacks.
From Siberia and throughout the Canadian subarctic, “Strict Flow Regulated”mega hydroelectric generation pIants constructed from the 1950s to the 1980’s impounded many of the major rivers. The Subarctic is home to the largest amount of freshwater on the planet. Waters from many rivers once flowing 24 -7 are now impounded ,creating sea-sized basins, reducing water flow in summer to a fraction. Historically this region has been cold and dry, but rivers, now reservoir-like, are stagnant all summer, irradiated, and causing high levels of evaporation and humidity . They are also inundating and melting permafrost.
Hypoliminal Dam Releases All Winter Guarantee Huge Unlimited Water Vapor Emissions too
Water stored all summer is discharged throughout winter from well below the top of dams where water temperature is around 40 F. It flows down the penstock thru the turbines and exits downstream into severe cold conditions. This very cold air and warmed water creates limitless quantities of water vapor 24-7 during the coldest months. For the past 70 years the downstream waters no longer freeze during winter and make their way to the bays and seas into the Arctic Ocean. Insuring less ice, more water vapor, and a warmer regional climate.
What effects did this have on the sensitive conditions in this region? I'd like to see a scientist step up here and tell me that there were no effects on the localized climates, And to this day it is still happening. Another point that is often not considered. Many of these former rivers now sea-size basins took 5 to 12 years to fill. When hydro is generated in winter months the waters released thru turbines and downstream heading into the Arctic bays and seas like the kara and Labrador Sea are at volumes 5 to 15 X greater than the rivers natural flow for an entire year. This high volume of fresh water is released into the ocean estuaries only in 5 to 6 months. What effects does this impact Arctic ocean salinity and ocean currents?