As Harms Mount, U.N. Climate Panel Says Nations Must Boost Resilience of Vulnerable Communities Even as They Cut Heating Gases
The world faces an urgent double imperative - cutting pollution driving warming and speeding the path to safer living in communities endangered through poverty or prejudice
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The latest U.N. climate change assessment, focused on impacts and adaptation options, finds that building a safer relationship with climate requires both cutting local risks and cutting emissions driving global warming. Rural and urban communities in places rich and poor face glaring, but reducible vulnerabilities. [Several updates appended.]
In the first major global report on climate change impacts and adaptation options since 2014, scientists from around the world are warning of major immediate human and environmental costs and mounting long-term losses if more is not done both to cut emissions of greenhouse gases and cut vulnerability to heat, drought, illness, flooding and other climate-linked hazards in countries and communities most in peril.
The report's summary for policy makers, approved under a United Nations process by 195 countries on Sunday, is blunt and urgent:
"The cumulative scientific evidence is unequivocal: Climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health. Any further delay in concerted anticipatory global action on adaptation and mitigation [of emissions] will miss a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a livable and sustainable future for all."
About 3.4 billion people live in situations that are highly vulnerable to climate change, the report concludes, and natural systems are more at risk than scientists previously estimated.
"Based on increased observations and a better understanding of processes," a summary document says, "The impacts we see today are appearing much faster, they are more disruptive and more widespread than we expected 20 years ago."
Among climate change impacts, the report finds that "changes in temperature, rainfall, and extreme weather have increased the frequency and spread of diseases in wildlife, agriculture, and people."
The authors found that about half of the world’s population is already experiencing severe water shortages at some point during the year through a mix of climate change impacts, rising water demand and natural variability in extreme events.
In terms of policy, the report found a substantial imbalance in responses to climate change so far, with investments and policies focused on cutting heat-trapping gases far outweighing work to cut risk on the ground, particularly in places with the greatest need.
The report is the result of several years of research reviews and analysis by more than 200 authors convened by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The summary and other documents are posted here.
Lead authors of the adaptation report from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change met in Berlin and online as countries discussed and then approved language before approving the document. (IPCC.ch)
It is the second of three parts of the panel's sixth climate change assessment since the United Nations launched the effort 33 years ago. The first section, published last August, summarized the latest basic climate science, providing a sobering foundation for today's analysis by revealing a world of accelerating and momentous disruptions in climate and ocean dynamics.
The third part of the report, on policy options for slowing warming, is slated for release in early April.
Low-income communities in rural and urban regions face the biggest risks (IPCC.ch)
Cut climate vulnerability and cut climate-heating CO₂
A two-pronged climate-safety strategy is vital because unrelenting warming will ultimately outpace any adaptation efforts in the end. "Without slowing warming, efforts to adapt to change will face limits, particularly as various warming impacts cascade and compound each other," the report said.
The authors said there's high confidence that the longer warming continues, the harder it will be to manage outcomes - in many cases because of the interlaced nature of human systems for transportation, agriculture, energy water and the like:
"Climate change impacts and risks are becoming increasingly complex and more difficult to manage. Multiple climate hazards will occur simultaneously, and multiple climatic and non-climatic risks will interact, resulting in compounding overall risk and risks cascading across sectors and regions. Some responses to climate change result in new impacts and risks."
Just think of the under-anticipated disruptions from the pandemic - particularly to supply chains - to get the idea.
Eliminate vulnerability gaps
At the same time, the report, and individual authors, stressed the enormous potential for limiting losses well before the benefits of emissions cuts kick in by cutting local climate vulnerability now.
So far, the vast majority of investments around the world in fighting climate dangers have focused on cutting emissions.
At a Sunday media briefing, Kristie Ebi, a lead author from the University of Washington focused on climate and health, put the opportunity, and responsibility, bluntly, in the context of extreme heat.
"Nobody needs to die in a heat wave," Ebi said.
This vital point echoes comments she made on one of our Sustain What webcasts last year; please watch when you can to go deeper, but here's the prime takeaway point in her own eloquent voice (inserted, 06/21/22):
Ebi, who worked with public health officials around the U.S. Pacific Northwest during the region's off-the-charts heat dome last June, said she hopes heat-prone cities around the United States and the world adopt "heat health action plans." The report says such "early warning and response systems are effective adaptation options for extreme heat."
The deadly adaptation gap persists
The report reinforces the message in another United Nations report, released at the Glasgow climate treaty talks in November, that identified the dangerous "adaptation gap" between rich and poor nations and regions and the gap between the funding needed to cut climate risk in poor countries and the funds wealthy countries pledged, but have not yet delivered, over the last decade.
In an email, Kristie Ebi offered an explanation for the enduring gap between investments and policy work on greenhouse gas reductions and vulnerability reduction.
"Reasons why this imbalance continues include that mitigation is easier to measure and monitor, with a well-defined basket of options that are technologically-focused," she wrote. "Adaptation includes technological development, but also strengthening governance; protecting marginalized and poor communities where there has been historical under-investment; investing in research, development and implementation.. and many others. One of many simple examples is that all large cities in the U.S. need heat action plans. Doing so requires change in how federal agencies support cities, increased education about the risks of heat and how to develop early-warning systems, engagement with trusted voices for marginalized communities, building overall capacity, among others. That can be more complex than deploying a new technology. The tendency of governments to put off building these collaborations, coordinations, and capacities is why vulnerability is increasing in most regions."
Amid other crises, climate has to remain a priority
In interviews, scientists acknowledged that current events, from COVID-19 to the Ukraine invasion, make the task of sustaining climate action particularly challenging.
But further delay will simply amplify the building crisis, said Edwin Castellanos, a lead author of the report section on Central and South America, in a media briefing on Sunday.
"We will always have emergencies at hand that seem to be more urgent than climate change," said Castellanos, who is from the University of the Valley of Guatemala. "We now have the pandemic, the war.... If we don’t worry about problems of climate change, which are not only in the future but are also current, then it’s going to be more expensive and difficult to address those issues in the future.”
It's worth noting that during the plenary session in which the scientific report was approved by governments, Russia's main representative, Oleg Anisimov, a scientist at the state hydrological institute in St. Petersburg, made a remarkable statement about the invasion of Ukraine: "Let me present an apology on behalf of all Russians not able to prevent this conflict," he said according to France 24, citing three sources who heard him speak.
His statement followed an equally electrifying one by Svitlana Krakovska, his Ukrainian counterpart, the French network reported:
"We will not surrender in Ukraine, and we hope the world will not surrender in building a climate resilient future," she said in English, according to multiple sources.
"Human-induced climate change and the war on Ukraine have the same roots -- fossil fuels -- and our dependence on them," she added.
Avoiding “maladaptation,” pursuing "climate resilient development"
The report describes a suite of holistic strategies for propelling what it calls "climate resilient development" for several billion people still living in rural areas and a similar number in and around fast-growing cities, where an accelerating influx of people seeking opportunity often settle in marginal spots vulnerable to flooding, landslides and disease.
Here's the report's description of this process:
"Striving for Climate Resilient Development means reducing exposure and vulnerability to climate hazards, cutting back greenhouse gas emissions and conserving biodiversity are given the highest priorities in everyday decision-making and policies on all aspects of society including energy, industry, health, water, food, urban development, housing and transport. It is about successfully navigating the complex interactions between these different systems so that action in one area does not have adverse effects elsewhere and opportunities are harnessed to accelerate progress towards a safer, fairer world."
The process only works by crossing many disciplinary boundaries and connecting communities at risk with expertise and leadership to avoid what's called "maladaptation" - projects like sea walls that might shield one sector of society while harming another.
That isn't easy, but what is when it comes to addressing humanity's climate challenges?
Learn more when we meet several authors of the climate panel's adaptation report in this Sustain What webcast. My guests were Edward Carr of Clark University (whose expertise is in climate-resilient development), Ben Orlove of the Columbia Climate School and Farhana Sultana, a Syracuse University geographer focused on climate, water, women, justice and much more.
Watch here or on Facebook or LinkedIn:
Updates
"Losses and damages" contested - During a press briefing on Sunday I was intrigued by the phrase "losses and damages" in the report and discussion. It's an echo of the formal proposal from vulnerable countries for "loss and damage" compensation from industrial powers but clearly distinct. It turns out there was a big fight between rich and poor countries over this, as well as language on "nature-based solutions" and adaptation finance. Please explore the great reporting on this by Climate Home here and here. Climate Home also reported on a similar struggle over geoengineering.
Geoengineering - The report includes a short critique of climate engineering, specifically proposals that would artificially add aerosols to the atmosphere to reflect some sunlight back to space, offsetting some warming. There's been a rising tide of opposition to "solar radiation management," most notably a recent call by hundreds of scientists for an international "non-use agreement."
I'm not sure why this form of geoengineering made it into the adaptation report. Blocking sunlight is a form of warming mitigation and any assessment really belongs in next month's report on policies for slowing warming. Here are points the adaptation-report authors describe as having high confidence:
Solar radiation modification approaches, if they were to be implemented, introduce a widespread range of new risks to people and ecosystems, which are not well understood. Solar radiation modification approaches have potential to offset warming and ameliorate some climate hazards, but substantial residual climate change or overcompensating change would occur at regional scales and seasonal timescales. Large uncertainties and knowledge gaps are associated with the potential of solar radiation modification approaches to reduce climate change risks. Solar radiation modification would not stop atmospheric CO2 concentrations from increasing or reduce resulting ocean acidification under continued anthropogenic emissions.
For what it's worth, I predict a non-use agreement on solar radiation management will never happen. But if it did it would indirectly chill important research on aerosols' climate impacts in the atmosphere, just as a push to stop rogue iron-seeding tests in the ocean killed support for more careful scientific research on the matter. A decade was lost, although new efforts are planned.
Russian politician threatens Russian IPCC scientist - It was absolutely chilling on Monday to see a high-level Russian politician threaten Russia's top representative at the climate panel meeting with "oblivion" after news accounts spread of the statement the scientist, Oleg Anisimov, made Sunday offering a Ukrainian colleague a personal apology for the Ukraine invasion. The statement was made during a private Zoom discussion. The threats brought me back to an investigative story I wrote in 1986 after the still-unsolved disappearance of a Soviet climate scientist. This tweet has all the relevant links:
Resources and reading
Adaptation Gap Report 2021, United Nations Environment Program - This report always gets only a fraction of the attention and media coverage of the companion Emissions Gap Report. But as the new IPCC report makes clear the stark underinvestment in adaptation means the world is missing giant opportunity to cut human losses now even while working toward stopping the buildup of heat-trapping CO₂ in the atmosphere.
The IPCC climate impacts report is coming out – now how do we engage people with it? - I particularly like this February 24 post by Robin, at the British group Climate Outreach, aimed at moving from the static report to responses where they are needed most.
“Let’s Start From Here”: Local Solutions for Loss and Damage and Livelihood Resilience - This great post by Saira Khan on the Wilson Center New Security Beat blog is from 2017 but as relevant as ever.
There's no time for "woe is me" rhetoric these days and there are countless opportunities to bend curves from vulnerability toward resilience, particularly by empowering communities at the local level to adapt in ways that suit their mix of hazards and capacities.
Relevant Sustain What posts and webcasts
A Hot, Fiery, Flooding Present and Future - the Latest Warning from the U.N. Climate Panel - My post on the main findings in the first part of this sixth IPCC report on the basic climate science, released last summer. As I wrote, "The remedy is the same, cut vulnerability now and emissions now. Are we listening?"
Behind Global "Climate Emergency" Rhetoric, Solvable Vulnerability Emergencies Abound
Rich-world climate impacts - explosive wildfires, deadly urban floods and heat domes - are terrible. But this phrase obscures a profound vulnerability divide among and within countries.
Risks and Choices as Populations Surge in Flood Zones, Rich and Poor
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