An Amazon and Indigenous Warning Sign in the 'Bolsonaro Bounce' in Brazil's Financial Markets
A tighter-than-predicted presidential vote prompts financial markets to signal more concern about profits than right-wing extremism
Three weeks ago, I wrote about looming warning signs that Brazil's far-right President Jair Bolsonaro might be tempted to end the country's 33-year string of democratic elections if he loses to socialist former President Luiz InĂ¡cio Lula da Silva.
The fear has been that Bolsonaro will reject a Lula win and, drawing on his support in the military, business community and courts, do what his admirer Donald J. Trump failed to do on January 6 - hold onto power by any means necessary.
There's fresh evidence to bolster this hypothesis, from Brazil's financial markets. Here's what I mean.
On March 19, 2019, presidents Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil and Donald J. Trump of the United States gave each other soccer shirts at the White House. (Brazilian government photo)
A stock market jump signals business support for Bolsonaro
Yesterday, Brazil voted, Lula prevailed and, as was long assured, Bolsonaro's second place finish was close enough to force a second round vote on October 30, required under Brazilian law if the lead candidate in the initial wide field does not top 50 percent.
The news focus since last night has been on how Brazil's most respected polls totally missed that the race actually ended up tightening substantially.
Bolsonaro is already using this disconnect to build on his longstanding false assertions that Brazil's electronic voting system is corrupted - saying the polls are a lie, as well.
There's a lot of cogitation, with Jon Henley doing a wide look for The Guardian at presidential polling flubs and successes, both in Brazil and elsewhere.
There are almost surely an array of factors in play in Brazil.
"Bolsonarism is much more alive and has a further reach than people had thought and polls had captured," Esther Solano, a political scientist and Bolsonaro expert, told the BBC. "What we underestimated was the network of regional Bolsonarism. We have to rethink how we are failing to measure the true reach of Bolsonarism in daily life across Brazil."
Sadly, I see a lot of merit in the view of Cas Mudde (@CasMudde), a University of Georgia professor of international affairs focused on extremism in politics around the world. On Twitter, he made this key point about stealth constituencies:
"Polls in #Brazil were WAY OFF and that is troubling for:
- 2nd round predictions
- US midterm predictions
- BRA/US democracy
Main problem for pollsters is no longer "shy" but "secluded" far-right supporters, who reject all interaction with mainstream."
But, as I hinted above, the most unnerving signal of stealth support for an extremist whose policies have trampled human rights and environmental protection in Brazil is in today's financial markets in Brazil. Check the Bovespa Index (IBOVESPA) here.
Here's the Brazilian real against the American dollar.
See a pattern?
Here's a Reuters update: "Markets cheer Bolsonaro's strong showing in Brazil vote."
The antithesis of the "ethical markets" some seek.
Market moves are always a function of many things, and the media too often jump to simplistic conclusions in "closing bell" reporting. But it sure is hard not to see this Monday spike as what I'll call a Bolsonaro bounce.
Whether temporary or not, this indicator is in sync with the blockbuster story Brazil's investigative columnist (@guilherme_amado) broke in August posting screen grabs from a Whatsapp group on business and politics including explicit support from some wealthy businessmen for a coup if it avoided having Lula, from the socialist Workers Party (PT) back in power.
There are plenty of complexities. As Amado reported today, half a dozen regional politicians who surged into office on Bolsonaro's "beef, bible and bullets" lost outright yesterday.
Overall, though, the signs are disquieting. Reuters reports: "Strong showings for Bolsonaro's allies in congressional and gubernatorial races reveal the enduring strength of 'Bolsonarismo' even if he loses the presidency."
Whether your concern is for the future of the Amazon rain forest, Brazil's Indigenous communities or democracy itself, please do what you can to help Brazilians stave off this extremist tide.
In case you wonder why I focus so much on Brazil's fate, it's not because of global warming or even the fate of the forest.
My prime concern is for the countless good-hearted people I got to know in my months of reporting in 1989 for The Burning Season, my book on the murder of Lula's friend Chico Mendes, the rubber tapper and unionist who led the fight for land rights facing a tide of burning and deforestation that crested under the last dictatorship.
Without boosting the safety and sustainability of Indigenous and forest-minded communities across the Amazon and other important ecosystems, conservation will always falter. This satellite view says it all.
That reporting trip came in the run-up to Brazil's first direct presidential election since 1960. Lula actually came through the Amazon state of Acre while I was there for a meeting with the rubber tappers' union.
The passion for restoring democracy was everywhere. Now it's time for a passionate defense of representative democracy there - and here.
No candidate is perfect. Brazil's enormous challenges will require centrism more than back-and-forth swings to the political edges.
But I do like what Lula tweeted last night, in a clear attempt to avoid further divisiveness:
"Let's talk to those who think they don't like us and convince them."
Watch
Here's my sobering journalist roundtable after the murders of the writer Dom Phillips and Indigenous defender Bruno Pereira in the lawless resource wars in the Amazon. Listen to Brazil-based Lucy Jordan (@lucyjord) of Unearthed, National Geographic's Scott Wallace (@wallacescott) and Karla Mendes (@karlamendes) of Mongabay.
There's much still to be inspired by in Brazil, despite the efforts to foment hatred and division. Watch this amazing short Mongabay film on the rise of Indigenous Brazilians seeking elected office, written by Karla Mendes.
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